A Gathering Storm – Frank P.

An old pal of mine from my law enforcement/TV investigative days is now the US special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. He has a reputation for rocking the boat and attempting to dispel complacency inside the Beltway.

Lest any of you have any doubts about the new ‘Gathering Storm’ (despite the balmy weather in West Norfolk, Baron – the Canaries? I wish) :-)) I pass on for your information the following email I received from him today, copying a press release he authorised:

>> Fyi, I thought you may be interested in another issue of importance

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

Despite a $7 billion effort to eradicate opium production in Afghanistan, poppy cultivation there is at its highest level since the U.S. invasion more than a decade ago, sparking corruption, criminal gangs and providing the insurgency with hard cash, says John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction.

In testimony on Wednesday before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, he warns that Afghanistan could degenerate into a narco-criminal state.

“The situation in Afghanistan is dire with little prospect for improvement in 2014 or beyond,” Sopko says. “Afghan farmers are growing more opium poppies today than at any time in their modern history.”

His assessment largely mirrors a that about 209,000 hectares (515,000 acres) of land was being used to cultivate poppies last year – with the highest concentration in southern Helmand province. That compares with just 8,000 hectares in 2001 and 74,000 in 2002, when U.S.-led international forces toppled the Taliban.

As , many Afghan farmers in the province, who say they have few other options, see poppy cultivation as the lifeblood of an otherwise arid region.

“The narcotics trade is poisoning the Afghan financial sector and fueling a growing illicit economy,” Sopko says. “This, in turn, is undermining the Afghan state’s legitimacy by stoking corruption, nourishing criminal networks, and providing significant financial support to the Taliban and other insurgent groups.”

The value of the heroin produced is worth $3 billion annually, or roughly 15 percent of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product. As much as 90 percent of the world’s heroin is produced there, and some of it is now reaching the United States and Canada, Sopko says.

“It is widely thought that every drug organization supports or works with insurgents in Afghanistan,” he says. “I have been told that these same groups are closely linked with corrupt government officials.”

The special inspector-general complains that counter-narcotics has been a low priority for both the U.S. and Afghan governments and that robust law enforcement is needed.

He says that many U.S. and international donor officials and experts have advised him that “one of the greatest risks facing Afghanistan is that the narcotics traffickers and other criminal networks will expand their influence, filling a power vacuum in the areas where the Afghan government is weak.”

NBC: Afghan opium production on the rise despite U.S. troops, inspector says http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/15/22316414-afghan-opium-production-on-the-rise-despite-us-troops-inspector-says

Farmers in Afghanistan are producing more opium than ever, despite more than a decade of American forces in the country, according to a government watchdog.

John Sopko, the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, told the Senate Drug Caucus on Wednesday that the rise in opium production is expected to continue – and threaten the stability of the Afghan government.

“The expanding cultivation and trafficking of drugs is one of the most significant factors putting the entire U.S. and international donor investment in the reconstruction of Afghanistan at risk,” Sopko said in a statement.

Citing the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, Sopkp said the cultivation of poppy plants – used to make opium and its derivative drugs such as heroin – is greater today than in 2001 when the United States invaded Afghanistan.

Indeed, he said it’s the highest in modern history.

In 2012, Afghanistan produced 3,700 tons of opium, he said in his prepared remarks. In 2013, opium production was up almost 50 percent, with 5,500 tons produced.

Last year the amount of land used to cultivate opium poppies reached a record high of 209,000 hectares (about 516,000 acres) – up from 74,000 hectares (183,000 acres) in 2002, he said.

Sopko said the uptick in opium production and poppy cultivation are signs that the Afghan National Security Forces may be encouraging production.

The United States has spent about $7 billion on programs to reduce poppy growth and prevent narcotics trafficking – and another $3 billion on agriculture programs to encourage farmers to grow other crops.

With plans for U.S. forces to largely exit the country this year, he said he has concerns that as troops leave and the Afghan economy contracts, drug trafficking will make up more of the country’s economic production and criminals will become increasingly powerful.

Sopko, a former prosecutor appointed by President Barack Obama in 2012, is known to ruffle feathers and have a flair for publicity, according to The New York Times.

He has exposed waste and mismanagement in the reconstruction effort in Afghanistan, including criticism of a $34 million military headquarters that will never be used.

Huffington Post: Afghanistan Watchdog Warns Of ‘Narco-Criminal State’ After 12 Years And $7 Billion In U.S. Aid http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/15/afghanistan-drug-control_n_4603879.html

The top watchdog for U.S. spending in Afghanistan testified Wednesday that the counternarcotics situation there is “dire” and warned of the emergence of a “narco-criminal state” after the drawdown of international forces, painting a picture of failure for a 12-year, $7 billion effort to control drugs in the country.

In prepared testimony delivered before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, Special Inspector General John Sopko said the U.S. has no coherent anti-drug strategy for the country and that opium cultivation is at an all-time high.

“(T)he situation in Afghanistan is dire with little prospect for improvement in 2014 or beyond. Afghan farmers are growing more opium poppies today than at any time in their modern history,” Sopko said. “In sum, the expanding cultivation and trafficking of drugs is one of the most significant factors putting the entire U.S. and international donor investment in the reconstruction of Afghanistan at risk.”

The United States has spent at least $7 billion on the war against drugs in Afghanistan since 2002, according to Sopko. “Despite this mammoth investment, more land in Afghanistan is under poppy cultivation today than it was when the United States overthrew the Taliban in 2002,” he said.

Sopko’s remarks come on the heels of a November U.N. report that found opium production in the country at a record high.

The value of opium and its derivatives was nearly $3 billion in 2013, or 15 percent of the country’s GDP, Sopko noted. Income from the drug trade fuels criminal organizations and the Taliban, he said.

Sopko will recommend a “robust law enforcement presence” to fight the drug trade. But as the U.S. draws down its presence, leaving an inept and corrupt Afghan government in its stead, that suggestion is unlikely to be realized.

“The people I spoke with in Afghanistan in my last few trips talked about two possible outcomes following the 2014 transition in Afghanistan: a successful modern state, or an insurgent state,” Sopko said. “However, there is a third possibility: a narco-criminal state. Absent effective counternarcotics programs and Afghan political will to seriously tackle this grave problem, that third outcome may become a reality.”

Daily Telegraph: American watchdog says Afghanistan risks becoming ‘narco-state’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/10573168/American-watchdog-says-Afghanistan-risks-becoming-narco-state.html

Spread of poppy fields is promoting corruption and providing funds to the Taliban, threatening mission to leave behind a stable country, US agency says

The expanding cultivation of opium poppies in Afghanistan threatens to destroy all of the progress made in rebuilding the country during the past 12 years and instead turn it into a “narco-state”, according to an American federal watchdog.

Nato-led forces will end combat operations this year leaving a fragile government in Kabul and its security forces with the task of keeping Taliban insurgents at bay.

In a sobering assessment, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction has warned senators that the narcotics trade is stoking corruption and providing support to militant groups, threatening the entire mission to leave behind a stable country.

Britain has led costly international efforts to stamp out the trade for much of the past decade, but the inspector warned Afghanistan was now at risk of becoming a “narco-state”.

“In sum, the expanding cultivation and trafficking of drugs is one of the most significant factors putting the entire US and international donor investment in the reconstruction of Afghanistan at risk,” said John Sopko, in evidence presented to the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control on Wednesday.

“All of the fragile gains we have made over the last twelve years on women’s issues, health, education, rule of law, and governance are now, more than ever, in jeopardy of being wiped out by the narcotics trade which not only supports the insurgency, but also feeds organised crime and corruption.”

The warning makes uncomfortable reading for the British Government as troops withdraw after a bloody and increasingly unpopular 12 year military campaign.

According to an assessment last year by a former Government adviser, the Afghan war has cost Britain at least £37 billion, or the equivalent of more than £2,000 per household. Nearly 450 British troops have died in the campaign against the Taliban.

The Government is keen to highlight improvements in the strength of the Afghan forces and gains in education and freedoms for the people, but the inspector said all these were now at risk from the opium trade.

Poppy cultivation has long been an important cash crop for Afghanistan’s rural areas. Today, it remains a key indicator of insecurity.

The United Nations’ most recent survey recorded a 36 per cent rise in opium poppy cultivation, reaching a record 209,000 hectares – higher than the previous peak of 193,000 hectares in 2007.

As a result, Afghanistan remains responsible for producing as much as 90 per cent of the world’s heroin despite millions of dollars spent on eradicating the crop.

The industry is centred on Helmand province, which accounts for more than half the country’s opium and where the area under cultivation grew by a third last year.

British efforts to stamp out the crop in the centre of the province have been sidestepped by opium barons digging wells to irrigate large new fields in deserts beyond the reach of Afghan forces.

A senior Afghan official blamed failed international strategies for the burgeoning opium crop.

He said: “The counter narcotics strategy which has been developed with the help of our partners has not been that successful. It has had its flaws.”

The report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime concluded that with farmers facing an uncertain future after Nato-led forces withdrew, the opium economy would continue to grow even as the legal economy slowed in 2014.

Mr Sopko said he was disappointed the US had failed to make tackling the trade a top reconstruction priority during such a critical year. He added that the military and civilian drawdown could allow a “narco-state” to emerge.

“Neither the United States nor the Afghan government seems to have a clear, prioritised strategy to effectively combat the narcotics trade today much less after 2014,” he said.

Washington Examiner: Drug trade threatens to undermine U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, inspector general warns
http://washingtonexaminer.com/drug-trade-threatens-to-undermine-u.s.-efforts-in-afghanistan-inspector-general-warns/article/2542241

Opium and the lucrative network of terror groups and drug traffickers who profit off the heroin trade pose one of the biggest threats to Afghanistan and the nearly $100 billion the U.S. has poured into the country since 2002, the top watchdog for Afghanistan reconstruction warned Wednesday.

“All of the fragile gains we have made over the last twelve years on women’s issues, health, education, rule of law, and governance are now, more than ever, in jeopardy of being wiped out by the narcotics trade, which not only supports the insurgency, but also feeds organized crime and corruption,” Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John F. Sopko told the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, according to prepared testimony.

Cultivation of poppies, the origin of opium and heroin, is actually most prevalent in areas where the U.S. has invested most. Helmand Province, for instance, was a key focus of the counterinsurgency effort, and now contains almost half the poppy fields in the country. And in Nangarhar, a “model province” declared poppy-free in 2008, cultivation has increased dramatically.

In fact, more land is dedicated to poppy growing today than any other time in Afghanistan’s modern history, Sopko said. Poppy fields take up 800 square miles, or 12 times the size of the District of Columbia.

The drug trade strengthens insurgent groups vying for control as the U.S. troop drawdown and a weak Afghan government leave a power vacuum. Not only does the Taliban get more than one-third of its income from opium, but drug trafficking fuels the relationship between unstable communities, insurgents and corrupt officials – what Sopko called the “narcotics-insurgency-corruption nexus.”

“The narcotics trade is poisoning the Afghan financial sector and fueling a growing illicit economy. This, in turn, is undermining the Afghan state’s legitimacy by stoking corruption, nourishing criminal networks, and providing significant financial support to the Taliban and other insurgent groups,” he said.

In addition to funding insurgents, the drug trade also encourages the Afghan National Security Forces to turn a blind eye to poppy growing as a way of currying favor with communities – and to profit off the industry.

The U.S. has poured more than $7 billion into counternarcotics efforts, and $3 billion more into agriculture and stabilization programs designed to get farmers growing other crops. But while Afghanistan’s drug problem gets worse, U.S. efforts to stop it are falling short.

“On my last trip to Afghanistan, no one at the embassy could convincingly explain to me how the U.S. government counternarcotics efforts are making a meaningful impact on the narcotics trade or how they will have a significant impact after the 2014 transition,” Sopko said.

U.S. agencies have helped train Afghan counternarcotics teams and support their efforts, but those programs are ineffective, according to SIGAR’s audits.

The Defense Department has spent almost $1 billion on the Afghan Special Mission Wing, which provides air support for anti-drug and counterterror missions. DOD plans to purchase 48 new aircraft for the SMW and support their operation for $109 million each year despite a SIGAR audit that found the SMW can’t operate and maintain its existing fleet on its own.

“In the opinion of almost everyone I spoke with, the situation in Afghanistan is dire with little prospect for improvement in 2014 or beyond,” he said.

Most experts describe the country’s two possible futures as a successful modern state or an insurgent state, he said. But if the drug trade isn’t stopped, Sopko warned, a “narco-criminal state” is a distinct possibility for post-2014 Afghanistan. <<

So-o-o-o-o-o! after all that blood, treasure and ‘diplomatic’ bullshit things will be worse when we leave that historical graveyard of Western adventures than when the ‘just war’ commenced; moreover the upshot will be another vast area of narco-production to feed the coffers of International Organised Crime and yet another assault by the unholy alliance of Islam and Marxism to undermine Western civilisation.

And we’re fretting about a little precipitation in the North Atlantic in January?
One wonders what the relatives of our troops killed in Helmand (not to mention Woolwich) thinks of this development?

As I mentioned yesterday in my assessment of Western “leaders”: a permutation of idiots, traitors and perverts.